Liquid Strategies Insights & Commentary

Manager Commentary - Q3 2020

Author: Shawn Gibson

 

At the start of the quarter, the U.S. equity markets staged yet another dramatic rally, sending most global equity markets higher and pushing the S&P 500 Index to new all-time highs. Concerns around COVID, stimulus and elections led to an extremely volatile finish to the quarter in risk assets. Despite the volatile finish to the quarter, our income-based Overlay Strategy generated gross income of 1.42% for the quarter, bringing the annualized gross income produced by the Strategy to 2.94% since inception in 2013.

Overlay Strategy Returns through 9/30/20
Q3 2020 Annualized Since Inception (11/1/2013)
1.42% (Gross) 2.94% (Gross)
1.24% (Net) 2.17% (Net)

Net of fees assumes a 0.75% management fee applied monthly.

The Strategy continues to demonstrate the ability to generate positive long-term incremental income to underlying beta sources in a variety of market conditions. For investors that would have been invested in these various strategies since the inception of the firm, below are the illustrative long-term performance results:

ANNUALIZED SEPARATE ACCOUNT ILLUSTRATIVE RETURNS (Net1)

11/01/2013 - 09/30/2020

  1 YEARS 3 YEARS 5 YEARS Inception to Date
Large Cap Equity Strategy 16.45% 11.22% 15.59% 14.14%
S&P 500 Index  15.15% 12.28% 14.15% 12.11%

Small Cap Equity Strategy -7.01% -1.27% 8.57% 7.96%
S&P 600 Index -8.32% -0.33% 7.20% 6.04%

Foreign Equity Strategy -1.46% 0.93% 6.65% 6.14%
MSCI ACWI ex US 3.00% 1.16% 6.23% 2.68%

 

Core Bond Strategy 7.40% 8.60% 4.68% 5.82%
Bbg Barc US Agg Index 6.98% 5.24% 4.18% 3.90%

 

Municipal Bond Strategy 5.62% 3.45% 5.24% 6.15%
Bbg Barc Muni Bond Index 4.09% 4.28% 3.84% 4.25%

 1Net of fees assumes a 0.75% management fee applied monthly. These returns are illustrative, hypothetical numbers representative of two actual return streams (Liquid Strategies Overlay and the underlying index ETF). The numbers illustrate what would have happened had we taken the underlying index ETF returns and added Liquid Strategy Overlay returns to them. Source: Morningstar, Liquid Strategies.

OVERLAY STRATEGY ANNUALIZED PERFORMANCE

11/01/2013-09/30/2020

  1 YEAR 3 YEARS 5 YEARS Inception to Date
Overlay Strategy (Gross) 2.39% 0.26% 2.41% 2.94%
Overlay Strategy (Net) 1.63% -0.48% 1.65% 2.17%

Net of fees assumes a 0.75% management fee applied monthly.

*Hypothetical/Illustrative performance is not an indicator of future actual results. The results reflect performance of a strategy not offered to investors during the time indicated in the analysis  and do not represent returns that any investor actually attained. Hypothetical/Illustrative results are calculated by the retroactive application of the Overlay strategy constructed on the basis of historical data combined with other existing independently-managed ETFs and based on assumptions integral to this presentation which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. General assumptions include: The manager would have been able to purchase securities in a single portfolio with similar characteristics to the Overlay Strategy and the Index ETFs recommended by the illustration, and the markets were sufficiently liquid to permit all trading. Indexes used for comparative purposes cannot be traded, however there are securities, funds, and similar investments that can be purchased to obtain similar results and include no fees. Changes in these assumptions may have a material impact on the hypothetical returns presented. No representations and warranties are made as to the reasonableness of the assumptions. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. Actual performance may differ significantly from hypothetical/illustrative performance. Source: Morningstar, Bloomberg, L.P., Liquid Strategies.

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Topics: Overlay, ETF

Manager Commentary - Q2 2020

Author: Shawn Gibson

 

After a historic collapse in the 1st quarter of 2020, the U.S. equity markets staged a dramatic recovery, finishing with the best quarterly return (+20.54% for the S&P 500 Index) since Q4 1998. This strong market recovery coupled with high but falling equity volatility served as significant tailwinds for our strategies, which were able to benefit both from the gains in risk assets as well as gains from our income-based Overlay Strategy. For the quarter, the Overlay Strategy generated gross income of 1.80% bringing the annualized gross income produced by the Strategy to 2.83% since inception in 2013.

Overlay Strategy Returns through 6/30/20
Q2 2020 Annualized Since Inception (11/1/2013)
1.80% (Gross) 2.83% (Gross)
1.61% (Net) 2.06% (Net)

Net of fees assumes a 0.75% management fee applied monthly.

ANNUALIZED SEPARATE ACCOUNT ILLUSTRATIVE RETURNS (Net1)

11/01/2013 - 06/30/2020

  1 YEARS 3 YEARS 5 YEARS Inception to Date
Large Cap Equity Strategy 8.14% 9.66% 12.22% 13.04%
S&P 500 Index  7.50% 10.72% 10.72% 11.14%

Small Cap Equity Strategy -10.64% -0.35% 5.90% 7.56%
S&P 600 Index -11.31% 0.51% 4.42% 5.73%

Foreign Equity Strategy -5.47% 0.72% 4.58% 5.61%
MSCI ACWI ex US -4.80% 1.13% 2.26% 1.85%

 

Core Bond Strategy 10.01% 4.78% 6.11% 6.08%
Bbg Barc US Agg Index 8.74% 5.32% 4.30% 3.95%

 

Municipal Bond Strategy  9.80% 4.96% 5.46% 6.25%
Bbg Barc Muni Bond Index 7.54% 4.72% 3.53% 4.23%

 1Net of fees assumes a 0.75% management fee applied monthly. These returns are illustrative, hypothetical numbers representative of two actual return streams (Liquid Strategies Overlay and the underlying index ETF). The numbers illustrate what would have happened had we taken the underlying index ETF returns and added Liquid Strategy Overlay returns to them. Source: Morningstar, Liquid Strategies.

OVERLAY STRATEGY ANNUALIZED PERFORMANCE

11/01/2013-06/30/2020

  1 YEAR 3 YEARS 5 YEARS Inception to Date
Overlay Strategy (Gross) 1.75% 0.26% 2.51% 2.83%
Overlay Strategy (Net) 0.99% -0.49% 1.74% 2.06%

Net of fees assumes a 0.75% management fee applied monthly.

*Hypothetical/Illustrative performance is not an indicator of future actual results. The results reflect performance of a strategy not offered to investors during the time indicated in the analysis  and do not represent returns that any investor actually attained. Hypothetical/Illustrative results are calculated by the retroactive application of the Overlay strategy constructed on the basis of historical data combined with other existing independently-managed ETFs and based on assumptions integral to this presentation which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. General assumptions include: The manager would have been able to purchase securities in a single portfolio with similar characteristics to the Overlay Strategy and the Index ETFs recommended by the illustration, and the markets were sufficiently liquid to permit all trading. Indexes used for comparative purposes cannot be traded, however there are securities, funds, and similar investments that can be purchased to obtain similar results and include no fees. Changes in these assumptions may have a material impact on the hypothetical returns presented. No representations and warranties are made as to the reasonableness of the assumptions. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. Actual performance may differ significantly from hypothetical/illustrative performance. Source: Morningstar, Bloomberg, L.P., Liquid Strategies.

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Topics: Overlay, ETF

Understanding Fees – Mutual Funds and ETFs

Author: Justin Boller

 

I was recently watching a news program in which a commentator generalized Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as “cheap” and mutual funds as “expensive”. Too often, we dismiss all ETFs as index following and therefore “cheap” and all mutual funds as being actively managed and therefore “expensive”. In reality, an ETF or a mutual fund is simply a packaging solution that can contain a variety of assets and styles of investing. In order to properly assess whether a particular solution is priced appropriately, we must first dissect the package to understand which investments are included and how they are managed.

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Topics: Overlay, Volatility, ETF, mutual fund

Sleight of Hand

Author: Brad Ball

 

Magic tricks utilize sleight of hand or misdirection. Everything about humans makes us prone to follow the shiny object. This most certainly holds true with investing. As I watch investment shows I once again find myself in disbelief how many investors have seemingly become “misdirected” and focus on the wrong things. Less experienced investors would have you believe that the experts who have been wildly successful for long periods of time “are too negative on the market”. So far these less experienced investors have been correct. But, then again, at every magic show the audience gasps in disbelief as the magician seemingly cuts the woman in half only to learn a few minutes later they were duped by misdirection.

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Topics: Overlay, Volatility

Is this the most hated rally ever?

Author: Shawn Gibson

 

In my role, the first thing everyone wants to talk about is my opinion on the markets (and ideally exactly what to buy and sell and when!). These advice seekers usually walk away empty handed in terms of specific investment ideas, but I am always happy to talk big picture in terms of broad risks and opportunities. The only question that I have gotten over the past few weeks is some version of: “Why is there such a big disconnect between the stock market and the economy…shouldn’t the market be much lower?”

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Topics: Overlay, Volatility

How a Potential Vaccine Affects the Market

Author: Megan Delaney

 

If there’s one thing we can all agree on in the age of coronavirus, it’s that we cannot stay shut down forever. Sooner or later we will have to reopen, and many states have already started that process with mixed results. People want to feel safe as they come out of isolation and venture back into the world, and even with social distancing, masks and testing, many of us will not truly feel safe until a vaccine is developed.

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Topics: Overlay, Volatility

A Little Goes a Long Way

Author: Justin Boller

 

It’s been over a decade since I last grilled using charcoal. This past weekend I found a half-used bag of Kingsford and decided to give it a try. This particular brand of Kingsford was “Match Light” which should catch instantly to get the coals burning.

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Topics: Overlay, Volatility

Get Outside

Author: Adam Stewart

 

If there’s one thing that being stuck inside proves, it’s that getting outside has never been more important. Being outside and experiencing your natural surroundings is critical for both mental and physical health.

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Topics: Overlay, Volatility

Volatility Outlook for the Remainder of the Year

Author: Shawn Gibson

 

After multiple daily moves over 9% in the S%P 500 Index in March (including one down day of almost 12%), market volatility has contracted significantly since the March 23rd bottom. One way to measure volatility is to look at the average daily moves of the market (regardless of direction) to quantify the daily price swings. In March, the average daily move of the S&P 500 Index was 4.95% (it moved up or down on average 4.95% a day).

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Topics: Overlay, Volatility

Find the Time – Asset Allocation Strategies To Manage Volatile Markets

Author: Justin Boller

 

Since 1976, there have been 3 periods where a balanced portfolio (60% stocks / 40% bonds) have experienced drawdowns of greater than 10% - after the 1987 crash, the recession in the early 2000’s and the financial crisis in 2007-2008. While each of these are unique in their own way, they do have one thing in common, we recovered.

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Topics: Overlay

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